Cautious Optimism

Cautious Optimism

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Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
Government by whim

Government by whim

Alex Wilhelm
Aug 25, 2025
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Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
Government by whim
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Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power.

Monday! Earnings this week taste like SaaS, with well-known names like Box, Okta, CrowdStrike, and Bill.com reporting. Nvidia will drop its own numbers on Wednesday. Today in the newsletter we’re looking at a new AI regulatory push, the latest details on the Intel deal with the US government, and a lot more. To work! — Alex

  • 📈 Trending Up: Ukrainian defense … water wars … the ‘Brussels defect’ … Canada-EU ties … housing demand in Shanghai? … Chinese stocks … French AI … Internet age laws … AI companies paying media? …

  • 📉 Trending Down: Journalist lifespans in Gaza … IT in India … Evergrande’s listing status … Orsted, after the gov killed its windfarm … Chinese chip equipment … Temu … AI cybersecurity … press freedom in the United States …

Things That Matter

  • If it worked for crypto: Supporters of crypto are having an amazing year. An industry group — Fairshake PAC — worked to influence primary elections to boost pro-crypto candidates. Most estimates of its success are very positive. Fairshake has nine-figures worth of cash on hand and helped get a trio of crypto-friendly bills through Congress. With that sort of success in hand, the tech industry is gearing up for a similar push in the AI realm. The new group, Leading the Future, is a so-called Super PAC that will have more than $100 million in its coffers to influence future elections and AI regulations. With a16z and OpenAI leadership helping fundraise for it, what does Leading the Future want? The WSJ reports:

    Leading the Future hopes to use campaign donations and digital ads to advocate for select AI policies and oppose candidates who the group believes will stifle the industry at large. One of its goals is to push back against a movement backed by some other tech titans that focuses on regulating AI models before they get too powerful and create catastrophic risks for society. The organization said it isn’t pushing for total deregulation but wants sensible guardrails.

    • Keep an eye on state-level AI regulation, which industry supporters failed to ban in recent funding bills after bipartisan complaint.

  • Not to make it about me: There was a big wind farm being built in Rhode Island, about 15 miles or so off the coast. A joint effort between a Danish company (Ørsted), and Global Infrastructure Partners (after original partner Eversource sold its stake for nine-figures; Blackrock owns GIP), some 65 windmills would have generated over 700 megawatts of energy. Built on the outer continental shelf, an area that the Federal government manages, the project is now dead in the water after POTUS decided that he doesn’t like wind energy. There’s a flimsy national security pretext being pushed, but the gist is that the king doesn’t want windmills. So, we don’t get windmills.

    • Rhode Island is not very large. This project has been underway for a very long time, and was expected to start next year after seeing its first turbine installed in 2024. Now, it’s kaput.

    • The work stoppage — cancellation, probably — means that quite a lot of American and European money already spent bringing renewable energy to the United States at a time of rising electricity demand and rising atmospheric carbon levels, is indefensible. It’s also bad for my local economy.

    • But more importantly: If you want other nations to invest in the United States, and we do, then you had best provide a stable, reasonable regulatory environment. This is regulation by Presidential whim, and will not help the country attract the sort of FDI that we want so badly.

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