I mean, it’s one banana republic, Michael. What could it cost? $14 billion?

Sep 26, 2025

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Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power.

Friday! What a week. Exhausted? Ready for a break? Too bad. There’s a flurry of new tariffs coming, including some that could impact semiconductors, we’re seeing the TikTok deal become clear (see below), and early inflation data indicating that consumer prices were up 2.7% in August, while so-called ‘Core CPI’ rose 2.9%. Both are far above the Fed’s 2% target, and with a better-than-expected jobless count earlier this week, we could see fewer rate cuts later this year. No rest for the wicked. To work! — Alex

📈 Trending Up: Xbox on the go … Pharma tariffs … quantum computing! … furniture tariffs … public corruption … chip tariffs … the FTC’s regulatory teeth … cloud surveillance … competition in stablecoin-land … Flox …
📉 Trending Down: Election integrity … startup cybersecurity … tech IPOs …

Things That Matter

Peter Thiel vs. The Pope: Over in Catholic-land, Pope Leo XIV is concerned about AI. The Pope is not worried, as many critics of the technology are, that AI is hitting a performance-improvement wall. No. The Pope is worried that AI-led automation will delete the livelihoods of many humans, to pick one example (the worry is part of why Pope Leo XIV chose that moniker!). Noting that the “church is not against the advances of technology,” the Pope also argues that it’s a risk that “the digital world will go on its own way, and we will become pawns, or left by the wayside.”

Enter Peter Thiel, who, through a series of lectures, argues that “fearing or regulating promising technology and scientific progress, including in AI, risked courting the devil,” per a summary of reports from his recent speeches.

I know that, as a Lutheran by childhood training (and having spent ample time amongst charismatic Pentecostals and Episcopalians), I don’t get much say on Catholic theology. But, leaning on my earlier Christian instruction, I find it impossible to harmonize the views of the leader of the largest Christian denomination and the leading Christian of the American technology industry.

Either we’re going full-speed ahead with AI and AI-powered automation without guardrails (to avoid the antichrist, according to the investor), or AI-powered changes to our lives risk dissolving our collective human dignity (according to the Vicar of Christ).

I raise Matthew 19:24, yet again: “And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.” (New King James) My goal, therefore, is not to enter heaven. Presumably, Peter has a different aim.

Everyone is getting Meta’s ‘Vibes’ wrong: Tech and finance folks are dunking on Meta’s new 'Vibes’ service, which will serve up “short-form, AI-generated videos” inside the company’s AI-focused mobile app. Sure, it’s a low-brow slop feed. Sure, it’s reminiscent of Shrimp Jesus and other AI junk that is reportedly pervasive on Facebook. Sure, I don’t want to use it.

But all that’s the wrong perspective. Stop dunking! Meta merely spent a small nation’s GDP hiring a chunk of the world’s AI talent to ship the perfect digital experience for stoners. Yep. Recall that time you had an edible and misunderstood dosage instructions? You could hardly move, could you not? And what would have helped you in that moment of panic? How about a man skateboarding over a pink cloud? Or perhaps a cat news anchor?

Hats off, Meta AI team!

In defense of Ed Zitron: Ed Zitron is a man on a mission. The FT recently profiled Ed’s present-day crusade to skewer the AI industry. Imagine a positive take on AI; Ed has published the other side of the argument. Heck, we’ve even gently gone back and forth with him on these pages.

As someone who has known Ed for ages, I think the criticism he’s received since the profile came out is misplaced. The complaints I’ve seen might be reasonable if the man were not sincere, if his schtick was an act.

Here, I invite you to trust my lived experience, I think the phrase goes. I’ve spent a good amount of time with Ed over the years, and he once tried to help me get my alcohol addiction under control (back in the pre-rehab days), among other kindnesses. He’s a good egg.

But he is sincere. Where’s Your Ed At is precisely what Ed thinks. If he wanted more influence, a larger audience, or really a shot at making a mint from his scribbling, he would take a different tack. In both form and content. Regular disbursement of eight-figures worth of words arguing that the thing many people love sucks isn’t how you make friends.

And Ed is useful. I read his work to ensure that what I think is well-interrogated. Sure, compared to the man, I’m the world’s most ebullient AI bull. But I will always appreciate someone telling me that I’m full of shit. Keep at it, Ed.