Cautious Optimism

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Cautious Optimism
Inside Pony.AI's self-driving IPO

Inside Pony.AI's self-driving IPO

Bonus: Perplexity by the numbers

Alex Wilhelm
Oct 21, 2024
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Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
Inside Pony.AI's self-driving IPO
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Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power.

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Grok’s take on a latest-gen Waymo car

What to make of Pony AI’s self-driving IPO

How much would you pay for a company with self-driving permits for all four of China’s Tier-1 cities, 440 robotaxis and robotrucks, 220,000 customer sign-ups and a 70% return use rate? Pony.AI is about to find out.

The company intends to list on the Nasdaq, bringing another VIE-heavy offering to American shores. We could get bogged down in the nuances of Pony’s corporate structure, risks associated with listing abroad as a China-based company, and the like. But what you want to now is how good a business is operating a robotaxi fleet today? So let’s answer that.

How Pony.AI makes money

Three main ways: Robotaxi revenue, robotruck revenue, and “licensing and applications.”

  • Robotaxi revenue mostly comes from “providing a comprehensive suite of AV engineering solutions, including AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering and road testing, to leading OEMs,” while a smaller portion is derived from “charging passengers fare for their rides with our robotaxis.”

  • Robotruck revenue, in contrast, comes “mainly by using our robotruck fleets to provide paid transportation services to logistics platforms.”

Licensing revenue, I presume, is self-explanatory. Here’s how the three buckets have added up in recent years, and the first half of 2024:

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