Intel, SoftBank, and the rise of Trump-Bernie
State capitalism sucks. Long live the free market.
Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power.
Tuesday! The future of AI is models that agree with you, per Sam Altman. I can’t see any risks there whatsoever, so here’s to GPT-6. I somewhat kid.
Elsewhere in technology-land, Palo Alto Networks’ earnings came in better than expected. Its shares are up. I won’t drag you through the numbers, but I did spy in its investor deck that the cybersecurity company’s Prisma Access Browser (PAB) is growing quickly. What’s PAB? A secure browser ala Island. Add it to the list of Chrome competitors, along with offerings from Perplexity, The Browser Company, and, eventually, OpenAI. To work! — Alex
📈 Trending Up: Privacy … small AI models … AI regulation … modest gloating … Nvidia in China … OpenAI in India … Chamath’s SPAC dreams … the value of racked chips … Xiaomi … hurricane season … Firecrawl …
📉 Trending Down: Apple in China … Taiwanese security … justice … cheap mattresses … democracy … US alignment with the free world … JD Vance …
Quick Hits
VCs can’t afford AI: It’s common to worry that AI progress has been overstated and won’t be able to deliver material value in the current corporate context. Or that AI infra spend is too high, and will lead to a crash. One worry that is less-discussed is whether or not VCs can afford AI. US model giant Anthropic is demanding that Menlo Ventures use only its funds in its upcoming round. Why? Because SPVs, single-investment vehicles with pooled capital, can lead to all sorts of private-market shenanigans, which Anthropic finds annoying. Calling the shots, the AI model companies are. Poor VCs!
Can you hear me now? It’s been edifying to watch companies like Monzo, Starling, Chime, and Revolut mature into large, valuable companies (we made the point last year). Chime is now public, while its private-market peers are doing quite well as a cohort. But what’s next for neobanks that have likely absorbed a lot of the low-hanging customer fruit? You get into the mobile connectivity game. Monzo is following Revolut and Klarna into the space. I suppose its one way to ensure pre-IPO growth, even if it feels somewhat slightly gross.
We’re going to get GTA 6 before Databricks’s IPO: Data lake and data warehouse — combined: lakehouse — behemoth Databricks is once again turning to the private markets. This time, a new round led by Thrive could push the value of the AI-adjacent private-market unicorn to $100 billion. I don’t mind seeing Ali Ghodsi and his team do well. But I do mind a company of Databricks’ scale look at public markets that are elevating medium-strength crypto exchanges to new heights and thinking that this isn’t the time to list. I give up.
Figure is going public! No, not the robot company, the blockchain-native lending service. Figure’s model is pretty interesting in that it decided to build both the necessary loan origination capability and blockchain chops to start executing consumer loans, instead of just one half of a marketplace. Since then, the company has expanded its product mix (stablecoins, a loan marketplace, etc), and seen solid growth. Revenue at Figure grew 22% from H1 2024 ($156.0 million) to $190.6 million in H1 2025. The company also flipped from operating losses to operating income and even turned in $29.1 million worth of GAAP net income in the first half of the year.
Do you want to read a longer dig into how Figure built a sizable finance business on the blockchain? I don’t want to bore you. Hit reply and let me know. If enough hands go up, we’ll tear the S-1 to the studs to see what we can learn.
Intel, SoftBank, and the rise of Trump-Bernie
Shares of Intel are up around 5% this morning after news broke that Japanese conglomerate SoftBank will take a $2 billion stake in the American chip company. Reporting indicates that SoftBank had considered buying Intel’s foundry business — why? — but has opted for a shareholding instead.
SoftBank is not the only entity hunting up Intel equity, of course. Reporting that Intel may find itself partially owned by the state has been swirling for a few days. The latest is that prior grant money awarded, but not necessarily disbursed, could be turned into an investment. The move smacks of a bait-and-switch, in which one presidential administration offers capital to fund national goals — domestic chip production, in this case — and a later administration decides that those grants were actually investments. Here’s Bloomberg: