Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power.
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So that was a lie
Back in April, POTUS sat for an interview with Time that included a notable answer regarding trade deals struck in the wake of Trump’s barrage of unliateral tariffs. From that conversation:
As you can calculate on your own, 100% of 200 is 200, and thus, you would be forgiven for thinking that POTUS meant that hundreds of wrapped trade deals were waiting in the wings to be announced.
But that is not the case. The FT reports that there are not — shockingly — hundreds of completed deals gathering dust in some closet or another. In fact, POTUS now says that such work would be difficult, and thus we are giving up:
Donald Trump has held out the prospect that the US will set new tariff rates on many of its trading partners unilaterally, rather than striking deals with all of them. […]
Trump said that, while “150 countries” wanted to agree deals, “it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us”.
So much for trade spats to quickly fade away; so much for free trade; so much for a global economy.
And this was also a lie
Back during the election, POTUS went on my co-host’s other show All In and said that he would staple green cards to diplomas earned by students from other countries. The gist was that tech folks like hiring the smartest folks, and Trump wanted them to know that he was in favor of their ability to onboard talent without the need to work through a fraught immigration process.
The reality on the ground is different. Wired reports that the second Trump administration is demanding more information, slowing down approvals, and generally making it harder for tech companies to hire non-citizen talent.
Returning to the ‘what did the tech-right get out of their investment’ question, the answer today appears to be a smaller market to sell into thanks to newly-erected trade barriers, and more friction in landing talent. Bravo.
Unfortunately, there are 20+ million Americans who believe anything Trump says, no matter how wild or provably untrue. If Trump declared that gravity no longer existed, MAGAs would start jumping off rooftops…