Cautious Optimism

Cautious Optimism

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Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
The vibes are bad
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The vibes are bad

And getting worse!

Alex Wilhelm
Mar 04, 2025
∙ Paid
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Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
The vibes are bad
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Welcome to Cautious Optimism, a newsletter on tech, business, and power. This is a midday update. Sometimes, there’s too much to fit in one send! — Alex

Good News: Shares of identity management company Okta shot 24% higher during regular trading today. Why? Earnings reported yesterday after the bell that delighted investors (it never hurts to beat trailing expectations and guide ahead of street estimates).

  • Gitlab had a killer day as well, rising over 11% thanks to 29% revenue growth in its most recent quarter along with generating operating and free cash flow results.

  • The new Architects record, The Sky, The Earth & All Between is set to land at #3 on its domestic UK charts. It’s a great set of tunes — try this — and a good recovery from the band’s preceding and less well-received album, the classic symptoms of a broken spirit.

Thus ends the good news.

Are we heading for a recession?

After falling sharply Monday, major domestic indices posted more losses today. The DJIA dropped 1.5%, or around 670 points. The S&P500 lost 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell a more mild 0.35%.

  • The Nasdaq is flirting with correction territory, reached when a stock or index falls 10% from its recent highs.

The stock market looks like this (one month chart via YCharts), with the S&P in green, the Nasdaq in blue, the DJIA in orange, and the Bessemer cloud index in purple:

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