The Fed is going to cut rates today, so get your votes in now
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25 or 50?
The American central bank is widely anticipated to announce a rate cut later today. The only question left is how big the rate reduction will be when the Fed drops its decision at 2 PM today (ET).
Polymarket is 53-45 on 25 basis points over 50, which strikes me as a pretty reasonable spread. Krugman seems to favor 50. Yesterday on the podcast, Jason argued for 25.
I’m Team 50, but no matter — we are entering a new era of monetary policy in the United States after domestic inflation was fought and largely contained. We’re seeing similar results around the world.
This is what all the pain was for. Here’s the United States’ progress on inflation: